Forensic 'capping is the application of principals and methods to support decision making in the structure of a horizontal wager.
OK, I admit it, that's a load of bullshit, but that's how handicappers sell it.
Ticket structure 'experts' want to sell you how to structure a ticket, but the reality of it all, if you don't have winners thru each individual frame, the structure of the ticket, in the words of Lee Major, Colonel Steve Austin, The Six Million Dollar Man, 'doesn't mean a hill of beans!'
"We can build a winning ticket, we have the technology" but no winners, structure means nothing, its just another loser, who knew?
We have been advocating that winners are key to good ticket structure and winning tickets.
I, actually, get arguments from handicappers who are fortified in their bunkers about ticket structure being the end all of all arguments. It's like the apocalypse if they disagree with the structure!
'Its a great ticket structure' said one handicapper, referring to a ticket posted online, but such a shame that after all the races were run it was not a winner. So, not great ticket structure. You lost.
I don't care if Moses brought the ticket structure down from Mt Sinai or pulled it from gospel of Matthew or Luke. A loser is a loser.
The level of stupid arguments in general, in the world today, is mind boggling, its almost like failure is acceptable if you show 'structure'.
Well, I am not wired that way, I don't care if I was Einstein, and used the theory of relativity, and picked a loser in the process, I still lost.
I don't like losing, you seldom hear me, if ever, making excuses for a losing selections or play.
Like Herman Edwards once said "You play to win the game"
You play to win the race. You play to hit the horizontal ticket or even the vertical ticket.
The anatomy of a winning play is being correct in your assessment of the race and correctly identifying the winner.
"You play to win the race," and I am going to say with the same look Herman Edwards gave the reporter whom asked one of the most dumbest questions.....
I, personally, don't like to use short priced favorites in the opening leg of a Pick 4, Pick 5, or horizontal wager, but we learn to adjust.
Why do I like beating short price favorite in the first leg? Cuz, everybody and their grandmother has it.
You beat an odds on or heavy favorite in the 1st leg of an horzontal wager, your payoff immediately sky rockets, as players are human, and human beings hate to be out of something as soon as it starts. The insecurity and fear of losing cripples the handicapper.
Andrew Beyer once said in an interview: "I been embarrassed one too many times, it doesn't matter any more,'' I get it, 'I have lost many times' as well, but I do not it allow to creep in to my psyche.
My reasoning when I sit down and try to map out a horizontal wager is to identify in the first leg how the betting will take shape. We have the ability of seeing odds in the first leg, and I weigh how strong the favorite is.
If a favorite is, in my view, 'unsinkable', then maybe i will cut down my ticket price wise, but if the favorite looks like the Titanic steaming torwards an iceberg at 20 knots, then I can gamble and play a larger ticket with the emphasis on beating the 'doomed Titanic and wagering on the iceberg.
October 16, 2024 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Amy Kearns structured this ticket:
In the first leg she evidently thought it was a two horse race, as she had favorite in the morning line, Deck of Cards, and the 7/2, 2nd morning line choice, Night Kiss, to kick off the ticket.
She was right, Night Kiss won paying $9.40
She used three horses in leg 2. High Barbie, the 10 was the morning line choice but went off 2nd choice as the 8 was bet to 4/5. High Barbie won paying $8.00
Leg 3, she used two logical horses and 20-1 morning line, Breezing Along on the ticket. Breezing Along, her longshot, won and paid $38.80. There's your separator.
She only used the 4 and 12 in leg 4. She had the favorite, the 12 on top and it won at 4/5, paying $3.80.
Leg 5, she used 4 horses, the 2,5,9,10, the 2 and 5 were short prices, but the 9 was 30-1 morning line and 10 was 6-1.
The 9 was bet down to 11-1, and won paying $25.20, her other longer price, the 10 ran 2nd at 5-1.
The payoff $16,819.65 for
Leg 1: $9.40
Leg 2: $8.00
Leg 3: $38.80
Leg 4: $3.80
Leg 5: $25.20
She had the right horses, in races she used only 2 horses, she chose wisely and her assessment was spot on. She had a little more coverage in Leg 3 and Leg 5 which made the difference in the price plays. Voila! Instant major, 5 figure score.
She could have used the same structure, and not picked winners in leg 3 and 5, and got nothing, nada, zilch.
Structure is good but picking winners is the KEY. Forensically speaking, if you can't pick winners your ticket is dead on arrival.