In my previous blog I introduced Ivar the Boneless, from the Netflix series, Vikings to you, Ivar was a cripple, and he terrorized Wessex, Northumbria and the Ireland coast with his 'Northman' raids during the dark ages.
A Game of Thrones like drama of our own history in the dark ages in Northern Europe, the legends of the Vikings is shared in 6 seasons. I loved every episode of the series from Old Norse poetry of the Viking Age
I learned about history, other cultures and other ways of life and death.
Ivar was the cripple son of the legendary, maybe mythical Ragnar Lodbrok.
This was Ivar, a mad, relentless, brilliant technician on the battlefield.
Ivar was played by Alex Høgh Andersen, he had to understand what it was like to not have the use of his legs, a cripple, whom took over the known world in this dark ages tale.
I thought Alex was superb.
I learned something from Ivar, or Alex Høgh Andersen, as he overcame his differences and handicaps using his strength, his mind, to overcome the obstacles, his challenges.
We, all, have to overcome challenges to succeed. Our minds is our strength and if we use the weaknesses to our advantage we can prevail but we have to be ruthless.
No, we are NOT going to war or invading any countries at this time, but we want to conquer our passion and that is horseracing, and conquering our own minds is the first step.
Everywhere we look there are disadvantages, these challenges have to be understood, and exploited.
For example, I read all the time about people using bullet works as an omen of good form, sharpness, for some that's their weakness, the power of the spoken word translates into knowledge, or so they think, they fail to question. Some of them don't even know how a bullet work is attained. They just parrot what they hear.
I don't take bullet works seriously because i have been in the trenches and on the front line, I have seen how bullet works are manipulated, and why they are being manipulated, is the real question, as the answer is in plain sight. Greed.
Greed is only good in the eye of the beholder. It is often laced with delusion.
Everybody loves to use bullet works, so if you manufacture a bullet work and hide the real bullet, there is THE advantage, in their greedy little mind, they are being ruthless to gain an advantage.
Don't cripple yourself by simply following like sheep to slaughter, be your own general on the battlefield.
I pay zero attention to bullet works, I don't believe in bullet works, I believe in the power of my mind and experience to intuitively smell out bullshit.
Look at all the things that have happened in racing, the scams, the scandals, and the latest one is a doozy. Bullet work phobia is just another decipticon in transformers world.
I tend to let my own experience dictate where I go, I use all of our own exclusive info, I don't get sucked in to perfect training patterns, those are cookie cutter shedrows, too perfect.
"I love the pattern, every 7 days, like clockwork," and the tag line "plus a bullet work last out"
Too neat, too perfect, so the horse goes out every 7 days, no matter what, rain or shine, etc.
There is little horsemanship and the horse is being prepped on the training chart. Training charts don't tout you winners.
I like a pattern where the trainer lets his horse tell him when he needs to work, and the key word is 'needs'. "A horse never, ever, has to work,'' told me a wise old trainer.
I go out of my way not let handicapping myths, fables and fairytales guide my decision making process. Some handicappers are crippled by these 'guidelines' on a daily basis. They follow their beliefs like the old pagan Viking did. No exceptions to the rules.
They simply think like everyone else, and they all fall on the same sword, or horse if you will.
You want to think like everyone else? I don't!
You have be ruthless, as Ivar, is told by his father Ragnar Lodbrok. you as the handicapper with your monies in your pocket have to be ruthless.
I live by my own intuition, by my own rules, Trainer Smith trains this way, Trainer Joe is completely opposite, but everyone views them the same.
One of them is very patient, the other wheels back, especially their maidens, in a hurry, they are not one and the same. There has to be a time to differentiate, and if one does something different and it works, it doesn't mean it will work for the other.
Being at Del Mar was extremely illuminating as to the differences between the East and West Coast.
The West Coast was like the Wild West in the morning, horses everywhere, all wanting to work and I would recongize a horse on the fly, and my thought went immediately to 'that horse just ran the other day,'' and he is now working 8 days later 47.2, out in 100 and 114 flat, and back in the entries the following week.
You seriously don't know if the horse will fire to its works or bounce to the moon.
At Saratoga, I would see a 46.2, and 59 flat gate work while the trainer is literally entering the horse to run in 6 days. Why is that important, have you noticed how many scratches there are morning of, that's horses are coming up with issues three to five days after they work and the bute wears off. Then, trainers bitch at the vets for scratching, two days later horse goes to farm. We wheel back horses too fast off races and off fast works.
I have gone against big works, at a short price, next out, 6 days later because the horse had a good chance to bounce to the moon, and sure enough they do, and you take advantage with a good valued horse, there are exceptions and you have to learn to not to be afraid of being wrong.
Fear, hmmmmm, now there is A factor, some handicappers are terrified of being wrong, like they are going to be stricken by an axe. So what if you are wrong, you have been wrong before, you will be wrong again, but when you are right, you hear angels sing and even a glass of water goes down sweeter.
I like the Asmussen pattern, of a slow work leading up to the next race:
For example:
July 27th: 100bG
August 3rd: 38b
Entered to race August 9th.
I don't like:
July 27th 100.2b
August 3rd: 59.2bg
Entered to race August 9th.
Handicappers love the latter with the fast work before the race, maybe a bullet, and yes the horse can fire at a short price, as clockers are all over the gate works, showing up on the tote board, but if I am right i am betting against a short price and usually with value. Ruthless.
'Cappers can cripple their bankroll by making decisions based on widespread popular beliefs.
They are fearful, cautious, like that would stop a bad decision, if you are scared to bet because you might be wrong, you shouldn't be betting. Go play badminton or pickle ball or something.
Instead, be ruthless and take chances against horses that have all the scattered jargons of today's handicapping society.
"The mind on the battlefield is mightier than the sword"
