Russian Roulette
- Bruno@Racingwithbruno
- Apr 5
- 6 min read
Ah, yes. The beauty and chaos of horse racing. It’s a world full of contradictions. Trainers, like artists, carving their masterpieces out of a living, breathing creature. And yet, those who’ve never stood in the saddle, never felt the pulse of the track beneath them, will stand on the sidelines, wagging their fingers, dissecting every piece of data, every move the horse makes, as if they hold the key to the whole kingdom.
Kentucky’s been soaked with rain, and Keeneland, bless its heart, has been drowned in more than five inches. Trainers are waiting, scratching their heads, wondering when this biblical downpour will end, but the horses—those noble beasts—don’t care. They’re bred for the racetrack, not for the rain, not for the whim of the calendar, and certainly not for the pressure of a stopwatch.
The handicappers, however, they see time in a way that is both mathematical and metaphysical. They want a pattern. A perfect, predictable pattern. Seven days. "If it works for one horse, it must work for all." And yet, what they fail to grasp is that a horse is not a number, not a machine. They’re not factory-made widgets that follow a set assembly line. They’re individuals, with moods, with minds, and yes, sometimes they just don’t feel like working today. Maybe the rain’s got them off, maybe it’s the track’s unevenness, or maybe they’re just in a bad mood, and they’re not going to run for anyone.
You want to know the secret? The real key to understanding a horse? It’s not the seven-day pattern. It’s not even the works. It’s listening. Listening to the horse. Paying attention to how they feel, how they move, how they look after gallops. A trainer worth their salt knows this. They know that a horse can tell you everything you need to know if you’re willing to listen. And sometimes, they tell you they’re not ready to breeze, not ready to run.
And when trainers play Russian roulette on a wet track, it’s more than just the horse that suffers. You’ve seen it, too—sesamoids shattered on an off track, suspensory ligaments torn when the horse was pushed too hard, too soon. And for what? For a figure in a handicapper’s notebook? For a speculator looking for a pattern that doesn’t exist?
There’s a reason why some trainers don’t care about a stopwatch, why they won’t rush their horse to the track. They know the track isn’t just a rectangle of dirt. It’s a place of pain, a place of glory, a place that holds more than just speed figures—it holds the soul of the sport. And no trainer worth their salt is going to risk that soul on a questionable surface just to satisfy the impatient whims of a gambling world.
And so, to those who sit on the sidelines, who claim to know the intricacies of training without ever having felt the weight of a horse’s muscle beneath their hand, I say: stay in your lane. Trust that those who truly understand the game are listening to the horses, not the clock. They know the value of patience, of wisdom, and above all, of understanding.
The most constant and excellent pattern going in, weather, and other miscellanous distractions, a cough, a fever, was nowhere to seen with Tappan Street, the horse was clockwork for Brad Cox, whom reacted to his good fortune with a steady pattern and it reflected in the Workout Analysis:
The venerable Bill Mott, he knows a thing or two about good horses and off the March 1 win, he took his time, no rush and not in a hurry, he worked Sovereignity on March 15, and he must have seen exactly what we saw, a lazy colt that doesn't let the moment entice him to be on his toes, so look at what he did on March 22 in our comments. To most handicappers he worked a slow half, to us Mott got in his head:
Mott got into Sovereignity's head and put him in front of maiden Chillax whom had outworked him before, Feb 15, from the gate. Why? Because he wanted Sovereignity to respond to the challenge and look at the tag at the end of the work note "He never let Chillax by". The time doens't look enticing to time clockers, but the effect of what Mott was aiming for was achieved. He didn't HAVE to work fast, all he needed was to fight back and finish well. He didn't need anymore than that but those who are looking for something to wow them, it wasn't there. Sovereignity ran a better race in 2nd place effort than he did winning the Fountain of Youth, all because Mott sat him down on his couch like Sigmund Freud.
Lonnie Briley been around a long time, and this is his best horse, most likely EVER. He gave him a break between January 4th and February 23rd. He gave him almost a month off, and came back with two 5f works, uninspiring time wise
For handicappers looking for flash, Coal Battle wasn't for them, for those who look just at ratings and don't read the comments, well, shame on you, and you are lazy. Having gotten that off my chest, see how we highlight the fact 'Coal hides his ability well, he works in covert fashion, like a MI6 or James Bond character. He isn't going to wow you and Briley didn't want him to. He had some easy works into the Arkansas Derby as well spaced out 9 days apart. I imagine Briley doesn't to want to empty the tank on last Saturday in March when his target is the first Saturday in May. The road to the Kentucky Derby is littered with horse carcasses that fell apart from being pushed too hard, trained too hard to get to the Derby, which leads right back to the late Bobby Frankel quote.
Say what you, and you will, about Sandman winning the Arkansas Derby but you have tro acknowledge the final five furlongs of the race were slow, and could have been clocked with a sundial. The final 5f were a cool 1:05 and change and a last furlong in 12.97, not exactly jackrabbiting away from the field, but Casse handled him well, two works for the race, spaced 8 eight days apart, and the last work 10 days out of the Arkansas Derby. Sandman is not a big horse, he is a lightly made type of Tapit's that are best to own, you don't want a big strong Tapit, those are only good if you are selling, the lightly made ones are the runners. light frame,. light body, is the key. I owned one and he could run. The best Tapits are the light ones and we don't mean color, so Casse can't hammer him fast and every seven days and he is listening to his horse. Let's see how he handles into the first Saturday in May, will he succumb to Derby fever? Let him do too much, you know what happens when the Tapits get revved up, hide the kids.
Cornucopian was an awful play in the Arkansas Derby, he was wheeling back in 34 days, off a super fast maiden debut win at 6f. He shipped back to Santa Anita, worked 10 days later in a weak half mile and didn't come back for 12 days off that slow work. He worked on the 17th with Barnes and then wheeled back in 5 days to work with an average filly named COOEY. None of this looked like a confident move, his work with Coeey in five days rest was a cram work, like cramming for that trig test the night before in college. He showed his immaturity and lack of seasoning by failing to rate, and running off to suicide fractions. it wasn't the riders fault, it was the horse and easily predictable at that.
Horseplayers whom got caught up in the hype, these champions of patterns and knowledge couldn't shake loose from the fast time, figure and manner and threw everything else in the wind. Their inability to read a horse today and not what he did last month is lost on some and will always be, you want to win at the races, think today, not last race, and if you think you know how to train a horse, you are playing russian roulette with your bankroll.