Smooth Operator, Sade, she sang that monster hit smoothly, like handicappers handling each and every card.
"No place for beginners or sensitive hearts, whern sentiment is left to chance, no place to be ending, but somewhere to start"
Handicappers, who fail on a continuous basis, handle the racecards, and the types of races the same away over and over, use the same products, sheets, figs, etc.
Real handicappers use different approaches to different types of races and cards.
Here is some tips how to approach cards like the Smooth Operator you should be:
Each card is different but handicappers approach handicapping with the same mind set, the first thing you hear universally is 'who's the speed?
Wrong!~ Wrong ~! Wrong~!
It should start with what kind of race is this?
Read the conditions. Horseplayers almost never read the conditions, a Nw of 2 and they are handling like its the Kentucky Derby.
There are elaborate conditions out there that are written for a specific type of horse, that's what you should be looking for, who fits here, not who's the speed here.
In a mid-level claiming event, these are a bunch of seasoned animals, been thru the hoops. They are versatile. Today on the lead, tomorrow stalking etc.
You, the first thing first, is not to ask 'who's the speed', that's a talking head rookie move, its what barn has success with claimers. Who is the hot horse, or hot barn, who is off the claim, or off the layoff.
If you handicap claiming races like maiden races, you are doomed. If you handicap like allowance caliber with promising horses you are doomed.
The thought that a horse dropping is damaged good is also rubbish, they simply are looking for a proper level and definitely the barn has no qualms on losing the horse, its maybe damaged in the mind of the connections, they simply are looking for the right level, and if it means losing the horse then so be it.
You run horses where they belong!!!
I also get "who's working 'good' in this claiming race", well you are on a roll, wrong again, works and claimers don't go hand in hand, except for the West Coast, where every type of animal is working every 7 days.
Less is more in claiming events, I see a fast work for a claimer on the East coast between starts and I move past like it did't happen. Claiming horses have drastic form changes and reversal because they are cheap.
1.) claimers are claimers because of the infirmities, conformation or lack of class.
2.) They are counterfeit, they train well and bounce off their works in the afternoon, another definition of cheapness.
So, why you looking at workouts? Because in your mind if he's working he's healthy, wrong again Mary Lou!
The best plan with claimers, is jog, jog, jog, gallop, jog, jog and may a 52 half mile.
I fully endorse that, while handicappers poo poo on the 52 half mile and go looking for bullets!
A wise man named Forrest once said "Stupid is as Stupid does".
Claimers would never be runway models in a fashion show, if they look like a fashion model, they have a heart the size of a pea or absolutely no talent whatsoever, no matter their pedigree.
I heard a talking head make a run on sentence, two minute of speech, on a claimer by Gun Runner, whom was related to good horses, and another 30 seconds on how the great the pedigree was, despite the horses having run ten times, took the 10th time to break maiden for a tag and now running for $25K.
True stories, it was like 'War And Peace' Tolstoy's novel for a claiming event.
As old time claiming trainer, the late Julio Canani used to say, 'running with its friends today', The key, 'Friends' is where they fit, most important, in claiming races, not works or who gets lead.
So, if you are making the wrong decisions, you are handicapping in universal mode, not like a Smooth Operator......
Claimers are short team gain, short term profit, 'don't get married to them' said one trainer, high turnover.
For example, trainers Linda Rice and David Jacobson have made their best imitation of the old Vikings in the Dark ages, like Ivar the Boneless, Ragnar Lothbrook, they weren't Smooth Operators, they just took what they wanted, pillaging neighboring countries was their thing. They came in to claim.
Trainers like Rice and Jacobson, come into Kentucky, bring a few horses, and having horses run at the meet, means they can claim, and replenish their barns at home. They are here first and foremost to claim, second to unload some horses, and third to win.
Linda and David are not the 'Great Heathen Army' but they are here to pillage and take horses home to their 'villages'.
Jacobson and Rice are not here in your state to domimate the claiming levels, they just want to claim for their meets at home.
Every race card is different, the Wednesday at Churchill, is mostly claiming events, you don't handicap like a Saturday card with high powered horses.
Practice these guidelines and thoughts on handicapping connections who have success with claimers, not like they are going to win the Kentucky Derby with this horse, they are playing the claiming game, a different game than developing a 2yo into a Triple Crown runner.
I have given you the blueprint for those types of cards.
The Great Heathen Army would have your head next time you ask yourself 'Who's going to get the lead' in a claiming race.