Morning lines are essential for most handicappers, but you would be surprised how many don't understand what a morning line is.
I know a bad morning line, immediately, especially in maiden races.
A morning line is not handicapping the horses, it's handicapping how those horses will be wagered on by the public.
It's not about who is going to win, but how the public wagers on the race.
It's crucial for handicappers to have an accurate line.
Why?
For example, if a horse is laid at 10-1, but in reality the horse should have been laid at 5-1 or 9/2, the public will adjust that line and compensate.
Once the wagering begins, the public, adjusts the incorrect morning line and the horse is at 9/2, but now is where it gets interesting and we gain an insight into the publics reaction.
When a horse opens at a much lower number than the morning line, however wrong it is, sets off bells and whistles to the public and you hear "somebody knows something'.
THE BETTING CAN SNOWBALL
A horse bet down to 5-1 off an incorrect 15-1 morning line, will receive even more attention because of the drastic difference and be 3-1. A vast underlay from its original morning line.
It's a four alarm fire for most handicappers that believe somebody knows something.
So does somebody know something?
Yes and no!
YES, the public knew. The public adjusted the morning line to what the horse should have been, and NO, there was no inside information, other than a poor morning line.
If a maiden is laid at 20-1 by a morning line, but clockers have excellent information including a fast gate work, unbeknownst to the morning line maker, there is bound to be an adjustment on the board by the public.
Clockers are the worse at keeping secrets, they have their contacts to wager in search for a score, making $$.
There are private clockers and workout reports AS WELL.
Most handicappers do not understand how to read workout reports, they look for ratings in search for a winner, instead of using the report to answer action on tote board ACTION.
It's no secret, you can't get rich clocking horses by wages paid.
Clockers don't work for the wages they work to wager on their observations and clockings.
Morning line makers used to, in the old days, coordinate with morning line makers to make accurate lines.
Nowadays, there is no connection between most morning line makers and clockers. Therefore, a critical part of morning line making is completely altered.
I don't use morning lines, literally, I don't pay too much attention to them, I have seen my share of bad morning lines and they outnumber the good morning lines.
I have developed, subconsciously, the ability to have an idea why horses are wagered on via our own features of pace and speed figs, works and more, we produce
Most morning lines are taken to heart by players, and it forces some players to take action on horses they didn't take into consideration in the first place.
If a horse ,you didn't really put much fervor in its chances, was laid at 15-1, yet, should have been 6-1 in the eye of the public, when adjusted by the public horse opens at 6-1, where it should have been.
If you didn't like the horse, now the bells and whistles have attracted you to revisit and possibly believe 'Somebody knows Something'
The horse hasn't changed, its the same horse you didn't like, but because of the erroneous morning line and public adjustment 'you' now are convinced there is more that meets the eye.
We have all done it, I can see you nodding your head in agreement, and how did that work out for us?
A high % of the time, the horse ran exactly as you thought originally.
Learn to know a bad morning line when you see it.