'You are your own worse enemy' we have all heard that before.
I have, even, told myself that.
I listen to radio talk sports shows on my way to and from morning works, because they offer insights to the mind of bettors and sports fans. I am fascinated about how it makes them tick, and how they navigate through the myriad of information and how they react through their own experiences. It helps me see the bettor psyche and how it works and use in my own analysis and products.
In my corner of the world, a horse ''touts itself'', but listening to my satellite radio, talk shows are infested with bias, prejudice on a team, players, or in our case, horses, because of prior experience.
Case and point, in the NFL, in Week 16, The 'San Diego'' Chargers played the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night football, all the rage was the talk of Chargers being the best team in football, prior to the game. The Chargers had won three games in a row including two classics versus the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs. All the talk focused on the Chargers being the 'now' team, the 'hot' team, the one to watch. This isn't about the NFL or sports betting, it is about people and their views and how it shapes opinions.
As you might have guessed, Ravens came in, and beat the Chargers.
When there is an overwhelming singular opinion, or a widespread belief, the opposite result is more likely to happen, in my opinion. After all, the public favorite in racing, per average loses more than 67% of the time.
Since that loss, the same people who loved the Chargers in Week 16, were off the bandwagon and now on to the ''now'' team, the Indianapolis Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts are the hot team and the team to follow. If I did bet sports, the Colts opponents, the Houston Texans would be a prime play, but I am not a sports bettor, but you get where I am going.
Handicappers, DO NOT, as a whole, analyze why a team or a horse lost a race or a game they were thought to be a sure thing, a favorite.There no forgiveness, no analysis, just a personal grudge, in my opinion.
A horse can lose a million different ways just as a team can lose a game, but a grudge against a horse or a team from past experience is the worse kind of reasons to use to base opinion.
I am often forgiving on a poor effort, especially if I can analyze the loss, but most people cannot, because their personal feelings get in the way. People make opinions with their feelings and not their common sense.
Let's face it, some peoples opinions are horrible, period. You can read them every day on social media, with the silliest reasons why someone like a horse or a team to win.
People like a horse or a team first and then build the case around it, I do the opposite. I look at all the data before and then make my opinion, fully realizing people cannot see what I see, and that's what sets us apart.
The best story I can share, is Nick Hines and I, bought a horse privately way back in the 1990's named Slash the Price. We fought, through his first three efforts in our barn, with a foot problem. We finally got him right.
Santa Anita Oak Tree meet in 1997, in the paddock before the race, he looked awesome, and Nick had told me he was finally right. Slash' sat on the board at 10-1. I told my partner, Jim, he could bet all he wanted on him, but his friend Paul, with past performance in hand, told him emphatically to NOT bet. He couldn't see it. He had bet on him the two races prior.
Here was Paul, no insight, no facts, and he, adamantly, disseminating his opinion, in our paddock, our race, like he knew, better. He thought he knew.
He continued his negative view of Slash's chances. Here he is, our guest, and he wouldn't hear anything we had to say. He knew. His ego was too big to shut up, realize where he was and actually use his common sense. He had zero sense of what makes horse run poorly, and a foot problem is right up there. 'No foot, no horse.'
I calmly walked over, took his past performances out of his hands, ripped them in half in front of him and threw them in trash. "Don't ever come in our box and tell us why our horse can't win'' I told him. I wasn't happy, do that in the grandstand with your buddies but don't come in our 'house' and tell us we don't know what we are talking about.
Slash' went out there and won paying 10-1 and we hit the EXA that paid over $125.00 for $2, the same exacta I had told my partner to play in the paddock. Yup, Paul knew alright. He knew how to be his own worse enemy.
My partner didn't bet a nickel because of Paul's insistence. He never asked or was interested in the inside scoop, it cost a partner and him a nice little score. It takes a lot for someone to maintain their focus and resolutely stand by your conviction, and the rest of us made a score despite Paul's antics. I asked my partner to never invite Paul into our paddock again.
Whether it is NFL, NBA, or horse racing, don't be a Paul. Don't be that guy. He was the worst, ever.