You know the sign, the road exit in California near the Nevada border, on Interstate 15. Everybody that has driven to Vegas has seen it.
It's noticeable, it's right there in your face everytime, but many don't know the origin.
There is a story about being an old ghost town, there is old spas there, so at one time was a place to relax, now it's for students of the desert, affiliated with California State University, it is also the first place they visit to an uninterrupted view of the night sky.
ZZYZX is also when handicappers see something regularly but don't know what it means, or even categorize it as an handicapping factor.
How quickly we process information is KEY in making good decisions with our wallet.
ZZYZX starts off with handicappers handicapping all tracks alike, the way Johnny, Pick 6, from 'The' Bronx, handicaps the same way he handicaps an NYRA track, he follows his trainers, his jockeys, what he is familiar with.
Unless 'his boys' do well, it spells doom if you let your circuit filter into your handicapping bias.
"I have seen that horse run'' is one of the familiar batle cries, OK, so you have, what does that have to do with today?
"Toto we are not in Kansas anymore".
Let's flip it around, handicappers who doesn't play NYRA or Gulfstream with regularity is just looking at the ZZYZX sign without having a clue what it is, they look at percentages, stats, the ridiculous shipper stat that doesn't take into the equation many factors that define a shipper.
I want an uninterrupted view of what works over a track, does horses coming from other venues, working on their home tracks and shipping in have an advantage, we have established some guidelines, thru Barry Meadow's Skeptical Handicapper, Barry shows you what he’s uncovered from analyzing the results of every race run in the U.S. and Canada between 2014 and 2017, a total of 168,227 races, one of them is there is no statistical advantage to being stabled at a host track, among many other great stats.
I want to pay attention to those horses that most handicappers knock for not having a work over the track, or even taking it as far as not having a race over the track.
The latter is a myth, a fable, that handicappers have been told over and over as it was gospel.
"You can't bet a horse doing something for the first time'', absolutely false, first time turf for a horse bred to adore the turf is a strong factor. Betting on first time starters also fall into the same category as 'can't bet a horse doing something for the first time'.
The Tom Ainsle's handicapping rules are outdated, they have seen their day, just like the old spas at ZZYZX, horseplayers and clockers live for first timers, once they have run, good or bad, they move on to the next batch of first time starters.
Second time starters are the most undervalued horses on the wagering train. All the hoopla before they started, but soon to be discarded and forgotten for the newest clocking star.
Most of my memorable scores was on horses that were making their 2nd start after they had trained super for their debut and didn't fire first out for a variety of reasons.
First time starters can offer value, but you have to navigate thru the information available:
For your perusal:
First time starter ZZYZX, training well, for some reason was stopped on, got sick, shin, something kept that horse from debuting, and as in eveything 'what have you done with me lately', the trainer knows the horse can run, he has a foundation and just, purposely, does enough to get them fit, they train from the gate lightly, as they know clockers hawk eye the gate, and the good gate works show up on the tote board. The trainer may even give the horse a gate pop for a reminder, no time registered. I love those. Boom! you get $20 as everyone has moved on to the next greatest thing.
Clockers don't make monies from their daily rate, they make monies touting, and the demand on the clockers booths can be substantial, everybody wants info, just peek at the traffic on the Oklahoma track at Saratoga, the crowd settles near the clockers hoping for crumbs.
Some handicappers turn to bullet works, the biggest bullshit handicapping factor.
Bullet works are manipulated because so many players gravitate to them, clockers know it and can manipulate the data to hide them.
For your perusal:
Horse A, B and C from the gate.
Horse A works three furlongs in 35.1 but was third best as B & C went in 34.4.
Horse A finishes in 48.2
B & C go on in 46.4, for B, C - 47 flat. but B goes on to 5f on the gallop out in 100 flat. C only went a half and galloped out in 101 flat.
The best best horse was B by far.
You can give Horse A, the 3f time in 35.1, and lo and behold its a bullet work for the distance, yet had been outworked.
Horse C went in 34.4, 47 flat and out in 101 flat, but gets the 47 flat for the half, also a bullet work for the distance, despite being outworked.
Horse B, the best of the lot, gets the 100 flat gallop out time. 5th best of 56 horses, despite having the bullet for 3f, and 4fs.
All the while, you, the handicapper are giving extra credit to the horses that received the bullet.
That is the biggest reason why I often malign handicappers that fail repeatedly to notice the ZZYZX sign and be remotely interested in what that exit is.
When you are betting your monies and you are falling for the oldest tricks in the books, follow along absolete rules in an ever changing game, you get what you have sown, as far as ZZYZX I would love to see an uninterrupted view of the night sky while reading my past performances